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In September, gold surged 5.2% while crude oil fell 6.2%. US equity hedged strategies saw positive returns, driven by individual stock selection and a shift from defensives to cyclicals, with consumer discretionary leading. European and Asian equity strategies also performed well, particularly in China due to government stimulus, despite volatility in Japan.
In September, gold surged 5.2% while crude oil fell 6.2%. US equity hedged strategies saw positive returns, driven by individual stock selection and a shift from defensives to cyclicals, with consumer discretionary leading. European and Asian equity strategies also performed well, particularly in China due to government stimulus, despite volatility in Japan.
The HFS Bulletin for September 2024 outlines various indices used for illustrative purposes, emphasizing that they are unmanaged and not directly investable. Key indices include the Barclays Corporate High Yield Index, which excludes certain bonds, and the Barclays Global Aggregate Index, representing global investment-grade fixed income markets. Other notable indices cover diverse strategies such as equity hedging, event-driven investing, and macroeconomic trends, providing benchmarks for hedge fund performance across multiple asset classes.
Goldman Sachs warns that the euro could decline by up to 10% against the dollar if Donald Trump and the Republicans win the upcoming US elections and implement high global tariffs alongside significant domestic tax cuts. The bank anticipates that a robust US economy and relatively high interest rates will sustain dollar strength, potentially extending beyond current forecasts if tariffs increase significantly. Additionally, it predicts a 12% drop in the yuan under similar circumstances.
The IMF reports that the global fight against inflation is nearly complete, with a projected decline to 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from 5.8% in 2024. However, rising geopolitical risks, market volatility, and weaker long-term growth prospects pose significant challenges, particularly for lower-income countries. The IMF warns that while inflation expectations remain stable, vigilance is essential as financial market turbulence and geopolitical tensions could threaten economic stability.
Russia is hosting the BRICS summit, emphasizing its role in creating a "new world order" that challenges Western dominance. The agenda includes discussions on multilateralism, economic cooperation, and potential expansion of the group, while avoiding direct mention of the Ukraine conflict. Key leaders, including those from India, China, and Turkey, are set to engage in talks, highlighting the bloc's growing influence among developing nations.
U.S. markets showed mixed results as the Nasdaq Composite rose while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell, with the latter ending a three-day winning streak. The 10-year Treasury yield surged nearly 12 basis points, reflecting concerns over sustained high interest rates. Meanwhile, gold prices reached a record high of $2,700 per ounce, signaling a new bullish phase, and Hyundai Motor India's shares dropped over 5% on their trading debut.
Chinese companies significantly increased capital inflows in September, marking the largest monthly surge in nearly two years. This shift was driven by a move away from dollar assets due to US rate cuts, with firms selling the most foreign exchange to banks since December 2021. Additionally, there was a notable rise in foreign currency settlements for goods trade, reflecting growing confidence in the yuan's stability.
Global public debt is projected to reach $100 trillion this year, raising alarms as geopolitical tensions and upcoming U.S. elections add to economic uncertainty. The U.S. budget deficit is expected to exceed 6% of GDP in 2024, while Europe struggles with deficits and growth stagnation, particularly in Germany. Meanwhile, China's economy is faltering amid a real estate crisis, with growth falling short of expectations.
Central Huijin Investment Ltd., a unit of China's sovereign wealth fund, has set a record by selling 207 billion yuan ($29 billion) in bonds this year, marking its highest total since entering the onshore credit market in 2010. The recent issuance includes 9 billion yuan in three-year debt securities and 15 billion yuan in five-year bonds.
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